* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * FIVE AL052010 08/16/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 20 22 24 31 41 47 49 49 48 47 50 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 27 30 37 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 20 22 26 28 29 33 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KT) 4 8 13 12 10 18 13 23 18 16 17 12 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -6 -2 -4 -4 -4 -3 0 5 -3 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 54 357 17 27 39 10 320 339 317 322 294 327 331 SST (C) 31.6 31.7 31.8 31.7 31.6 31.7 31.3 30.0 29.3 29.2 28.9 28.5 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 169 169 169 169 170 170 170 169 156 154 149 143 134 ADJ. POT. INT. 169 169 169 169 170 170 164 140 128 127 122 117 112 200 MB T (C) -49.9 -50.3 -50.4 -50.1 -49.8 -50.4 -49.8 -50.3 -50.2 -51.5 -52.0 -52.3 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 12 10 8 11 12 6 11 5 12 8 14 7 11 700-500 MB RH 62 57 59 63 62 61 68 69 59 51 51 52 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 5 6 8 9 9 10 10 9 9 5 5 11 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -40 -22 6 -1 -30 -4 -12 -9 -60 -86 -88 -54 200 MB DIV -5 -1 -3 0 3 4 38 15 -4 -23 0 0 49 LAND (KM) -67 -11 43 62 69 22 -104 -258 -369 -458 -477 -389 -290 LAT (DEG N) 30.7 30.4 30.0 29.9 29.8 30.2 31.3 32.7 34.0 34.7 35.0 35.2 35.8 LONG(DEG W) 85.3 85.8 86.2 86.8 87.4 88.9 89.8 89.7 88.5 86.8 84.7 83.2 80.9 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 6 7 6 8 8 8 7 8 10 HEAT CONTENT 44 7 35 61 33 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):190/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -3. -2. 3. 12. 22. 28. 34. 38. 40. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 4. 6. 8. 11. 12. 10. 9. 7. 7. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -11. -12. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -2. -2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. 0. 2. 4. 11. 21. 27. 29. 29. 28. 27. 30. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052010 FIVE 08/16/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 149.3 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 42.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 36.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052010 FIVE 08/16/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052010 FIVE 08/16/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)