* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * FIVE AL052010 08/16/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 20 21 23 29 35 39 39 38 38 39 40 V (KT) LAND 20 19 20 21 23 24 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 21 22 23 23 25 26 27 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KT) 9 16 15 16 15 16 21 17 26 16 13 3 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 0 -1 -3 2 -5 0 0 2 -1 0 2 SHEAR DIR 39 37 41 43 23 22 3 345 4 20 29 95 132 SST (C) 31.7 31.5 31.4 31.3 31.4 31.5 31.4 31.0 30.6 29.7 29.2 28.8 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 170 170 170 170 170 170 169 168 168 162 154 150 148 ADJ. POT. INT. 170 170 170 170 170 170 163 153 145 133 129 127 127 200 MB T (C) -50.1 -50.2 -50.0 -49.6 -50.0 -49.8 -49.8 -50.4 -50.8 -51.3 -51.2 -51.2 -50.9 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 11 11 8 10 8 11 9 12 9 14 8 700-500 MB RH 57 59 63 62 59 63 66 66 56 56 55 63 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 7 8 9 9 11 8 8 6 4 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -34 -22 11 6 -16 -7 -43 -31 -104 -89 -114 -22 -7 200 MB DIV 0 -18 -7 1 2 9 0 -10 -20 2 44 22 34 LAND (KM) 37 111 148 116 44 -14 -62 -123 -159 -235 -333 -455 -517 LAT (DEG N) 29.7 29.4 29.1 29.0 28.9 29.4 30.1 30.9 31.4 32.3 33.4 34.8 35.5 LONG(DEG W) 85.8 86.5 87.2 88.1 88.9 90.5 91.2 91.3 91.3 91.2 90.3 88.2 84.8 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 6 4 3 3 5 9 13 14 HEAT CONTENT 30 61 83 93 97 4 50 48 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):205/ 9 CX,CY: -3/ -7 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 492 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -3. 3. 12. 22. 29. 35. 39. 41. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 8. 5. 3. 3. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. 0. 1. 3. 9. 15. 19. 19. 18. 18. 19. 20. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052010 FIVE 08/16/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 150.0 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 26.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.8 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 72.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052010 FIVE 08/16/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052010 FIVE 08/16/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)