* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902010 08/16/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 24 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 24 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 23 22 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 28 24 17 18 17 16 13 11 8 17 16 23 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 2 0 -1 0 1 0 1 -2 -1 -4 -1 SHEAR DIR 55 57 76 96 109 124 135 153 151 164 165 178 177 SST (C) 27.8 27.5 27.1 26.5 26.0 24.6 22.9 21.8 20.8 20.4 20.2 20.1 20.0 POT. INT. (KT) 140 138 134 128 123 110 92 80 69 63 60 58 56 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -52.1 -51.9 -51.4 -51.6 -51.5 -51.3 -51.4 -51.0 -50.8 -50.5 -50.6 -50.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 3 4 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 80 79 75 74 73 63 59 54 49 46 42 37 37 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 7 6 6 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 44 47 60 68 70 35 27 15 3 10 -5 6 11 200 MB DIV 39 22 26 16 10 -12 -16 -1 -15 2 -14 7 5 LAND (KM) 360 369 389 350 297 326 361 442 466 543 608 635 652 LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.7 19.2 19.8 20.3 21.5 22.8 24.2 25.6 26.5 27.2 27.5 27.7 LONG(DEG W) 108.2 108.7 109.2 110.0 110.7 112.8 115.1 117.2 119.0 120.3 121.2 121.8 122.1 STM SPEED (KT) 4 7 8 9 10 12 12 11 9 6 4 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 18 16 7 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 692 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 8. 5. 2. -1. -5. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -14. -16. -18. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -8. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. -1. -2. -8. -14. -22. -30. -38. -46. -53. -59. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902010 INVEST 08/16/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.8 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.7 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 53.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902010 INVEST 08/16/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY