* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * FIVE AL052010 08/16/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 29 31 34 41 43 42 42 41 41 41 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 29 31 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 31 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KT) 17 17 14 17 19 19 18 21 14 18 12 6 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -2 -4 -1 -5 -1 -2 3 -2 0 -4 -1 SHEAR DIR 47 58 40 39 40 21 22 17 34 21 70 53 32 SST (C) 30.7 30.8 30.9 31.1 31.2 31.2 30.9 30.9 30.8 30.7 30.3 29.8 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 170 170 170 170 169 169 168 169 168 169 170 164 154 ADJ. POT. INT. 154 158 160 164 163 159 151 152 148 148 144 135 127 200 MB T (C) -50.2 -49.9 -50.1 -50.4 -50.1 -50.0 -50.1 -50.1 -50.7 -51.1 -51.5 -51.4 -51.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 8 6 10 8 12 10 13 10 14 10 12 700-500 MB RH 64 66 62 61 62 64 61 52 52 48 58 62 66 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 7 7 7 6 8 6 5 4 4 4 5 850 MB ENV VOR 18 9 -18 -21 -12 -36 -17 -65 -59 -108 -74 -72 -32 200 MB DIV -9 -1 -13 -8 -14 19 -1 -4 -20 -12 11 14 17 LAND (KM) 156 160 89 13 5 -14 -72 -107 -120 -122 -214 -262 -280 LAT (DEG N) 29.0 29.0 28.9 29.1 29.3 30.2 31.0 31.3 31.6 31.8 32.4 32.7 32.9 LONG(DEG W) 86.8 87.6 88.4 89.2 89.9 90.5 90.4 89.5 88.7 88.0 86.9 85.3 83.8 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 7 6 4 4 4 3 4 6 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 81 89 92 67 8 0 47 22 28 31 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 590 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 13. 22. 27. 32. 36. 38. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 6. 4. 3. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. 0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 16. 18. 17. 17. 16. 16. 16. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052010 FIVE 08/16/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.0 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 29.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.1 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 67.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052010 FIVE 08/16/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052010 FIVE 08/16/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)