* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * FIVE AL052010 08/17/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 32 36 43 45 45 42 44 42 42 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 25 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KT) 14 11 15 14 15 17 16 11 6 9 1 7 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -3 -2 -4 -3 -3 3 0 3 -1 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 54 20 12 5 7 348 334 13 15 36 120 316 339 SST (C) 30.9 31.0 31.2 31.2 31.1 30.2 29.7 29.7 29.5 29.2 28.6 28.1 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 170 170 170 170 170 170 162 162 158 152 144 137 133 ADJ. POT. INT. 159 161 164 164 159 142 133 132 127 122 117 112 110 200 MB T (C) -49.9 -50.1 -50.2 -50.2 -49.8 -50.6 -50.3 -51.4 -51.1 -51.5 -51.2 -51.5 -50.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 6 4 9 10 5 12 6 12 6 12 7 11 700-500 MB RH 71 64 62 66 68 68 57 50 48 47 54 60 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 7 7 7 6 7 6 4 2 4 2 3 850 MB ENV VOR 12 -20 -29 -9 -12 -23 -22 -60 -68 -95 -67 -35 3 200 MB DIV 1 1 -11 5 33 -12 8 -3 -13 -13 20 11 35 LAND (KM) 113 83 40 -16 -56 -191 -261 -301 -336 -381 -378 -321 -256 LAT (DEG N) 29.4 29.7 29.9 30.4 30.9 32.1 33.0 33.3 33.5 33.8 34.4 34.8 35.4 LONG(DEG W) 87.5 88.3 89.0 89.5 90.0 89.8 88.6 87.1 85.8 85.2 83.9 82.6 80.9 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 7 6 6 6 6 4 4 6 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 66 25 2 0 39 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 558 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 6. 13. 21. 26. 30. 32. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 6. 7. 10. 10. 9. 9. 8. 10. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -12. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -5. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 18. 20. 20. 17. 19. 17. 17. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052010 FIVE 08/17/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.4 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 38.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.7 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 26.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052010 FIVE 08/17/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052010 FIVE 08/17/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)