* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * FIVE AL052010 08/17/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 18 17 18 18 25 30 33 32 33 40 47 46 V (KT) LAND 20 18 18 22 24 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 20 19 18 22 24 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KT) 13 14 13 8 10 10 18 16 24 12 16 15 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -1 -4 -5 -3 -1 0 -2 -5 3 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 19 10 2 360 358 302 331 321 346 355 259 270 276 SST (C) 31.2 31.2 31.1 30.8 30.4 29.6 29.3 28.8 27.7 26.9 27.5 27.9 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 171 171 170 170 169 159 153 146 131 124 132 136 132 ADJ. POT. INT. 168 166 162 154 144 128 122 118 109 105 114 115 110 200 MB T (C) -50.0 -50.1 -49.9 -49.7 -49.7 -50.1 -49.8 -50.4 -50.6 -50.9 -50.8 -50.5 -50.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 3 9 9 5 10 8 13 7 14 8 13 8 700-500 MB RH 64 61 64 67 64 58 45 44 44 53 55 56 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 8 9 7 8 7 6 3 2 6 13 10 850 MB ENV VOR -16 -32 0 -4 -20 -19 -93 -64 -70 -33 -16 47 55 200 MB DIV 6 -4 14 29 3 -8 -9 -30 24 -7 20 26 11 LAND (KM) 55 2 -36 -105 -169 -234 -270 -301 -411 -568 -616 -612 -415 LAT (DEG N) 29.9 30.2 30.5 30.9 31.3 31.9 32.2 32.5 33.5 35.1 36.2 36.5 36.1 LONG(DEG W) 88.8 89.7 90.5 91.1 91.6 92.1 92.4 93.0 93.5 92.5 88.9 85.1 82.5 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 6 5 3 2 4 7 12 15 13 11 HEAT CONTENT 3 0 49 45 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 671 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 5. 13. 21. 25. 30. 32. 34. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 12. 11. 9. 8. 8. 8. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -14. -16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -3. 1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -2. -2. 5. 10. 13. 12. 13. 20. 27. 26. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052010 FIVE 08/17/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.9 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 33.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.9 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052010 FIVE 08/17/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052010 FIVE 08/17/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)