* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922010 08/20/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 29 29 29 27 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 29 29 29 27 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 24 22 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 28 27 31 32 31 26 23 26 25 24 22 18 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 7 2 1 0 3 0 -2 0 -1 -2 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 62 65 70 71 68 85 119 136 152 163 159 162 173 SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.3 28.0 27.6 26.7 25.6 23.8 22.0 21.0 21.3 21.4 21.7 POT. INT. (KT) 150 148 146 143 139 130 119 101 82 71 74 76 79 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.9 -52.3 -52.0 -51.4 -51.8 -51.8 -51.7 -51.7 -51.6 -51.5 -51.5 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 6 5 5 5 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 79 78 78 73 73 73 63 62 57 56 52 50 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 3 3 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 63 74 65 58 58 53 51 39 19 11 17 -2 0 200 MB DIV 59 50 30 5 24 -12 1 -20 -19 -1 -20 -14 -12 LAND (KM) 267 291 318 353 399 356 378 441 539 671 790 958 1149 LAT (DEG N) 17.7 18.1 18.5 18.9 19.2 19.8 20.6 21.5 22.4 23.0 23.4 23.5 23.8 LONG(DEG W) 106.8 107.4 108.0 108.7 109.3 110.9 112.7 114.7 116.9 119.1 121.2 123.3 125.6 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 7 9 10 11 11 10 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 17 9 7 8 8 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 526 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 13. 16. 15. 13. 11. 8. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -8. -13. -17. -20. -20. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. -2. -11. -21. -28. -33. -37. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922010 INVEST 08/20/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.8 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.3 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 89.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922010 INVEST 08/20/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED