* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952010 08/20/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 35 45 56 69 81 89 91 92 92 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 35 45 56 69 81 89 91 92 92 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 36 43 51 61 73 85 92 90 SHEAR (KT) 12 12 10 7 8 7 10 15 6 5 11 12 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 4 1 1 2 -1 -2 -2 0 5 0 SHEAR DIR 86 88 92 123 116 119 103 81 74 60 297 254 266 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.2 27.9 27.6 27.6 27.9 28.1 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 136 136 137 137 139 140 140 137 134 134 138 140 141 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 131 133 135 137 139 140 137 134 135 138 137 135 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.6 -53.2 -53.3 -53.7 -53.1 -53.5 -52.4 -53.3 -52.1 -52.2 -51.6 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 6 6 7 8 9 700-500 MB RH 76 75 77 76 78 81 82 79 78 74 76 67 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 12 13 17 20 21 22 24 27 850 MB ENV VOR 37 29 31 36 45 59 69 77 80 76 76 71 40 200 MB DIV 73 27 36 60 84 114 89 130 104 75 45 82 88 LAND (KM) 934 986 1030 1109 1190 1397 1633 1880 1831 1652 1542 1519 1503 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.3 11.5 11.7 11.9 12.4 12.8 13.3 14.0 15.1 16.4 17.9 19.3 LONG(DEG W) 25.3 25.9 26.4 27.3 28.1 30.2 32.5 35.1 37.9 41.2 44.5 47.7 50.1 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 7 9 10 11 12 13 16 17 17 15 13 HEAT CONTENT 16 16 17 18 18 20 19 15 14 32 34 40 43 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 526 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 12. 19. 24. 28. 31. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 11. 10. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 6. 7. 8. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 9. 9. 9. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 20. 31. 44. 56. 64. 66. 67. 67. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952010 INVEST 08/20/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.5 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 17.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952010 INVEST 08/20/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)