* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * EIGHT EP082010 08/20/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 30 29 29 26 23 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 31 30 29 29 26 23 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 32 31 29 25 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 20 23 29 28 22 13 18 23 23 22 21 20 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 4 0 0 1 0 2 0 2 0 1 2 0 SHEAR DIR 66 61 67 72 83 120 136 160 170 189 186 191 199 SST (C) 28.4 28.2 27.9 27.4 26.9 25.7 23.8 21.9 21.0 21.1 21.2 21.4 21.3 POT. INT. (KT) 148 145 142 138 133 121 101 81 72 73 74 76 74 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.5 -52.2 -51.7 -51.9 -52.2 -51.9 -52.1 -51.6 -51.7 -51.6 -51.6 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 6 5 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 80 79 74 74 73 64 62 57 57 51 48 45 41 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 5 4 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 76 67 56 61 64 47 49 20 12 5 0 -7 -11 200 MB DIV 36 4 -4 19 12 -14 -5 2 -8 -5 -15 -5 -10 LAND (KM) 300 327 359 396 359 363 435 556 666 821 1006 1200 1348 LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.6 19.0 19.4 19.7 20.6 21.5 22.4 23.3 23.8 24.3 24.6 24.9 LONG(DEG W) 107.5 108.2 108.8 109.7 110.5 112.5 114.6 117.1 119.4 121.9 124.3 126.5 128.7 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 9 9 11 12 12 12 11 11 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 8 7 8 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 10. 9. 6. 4. 1. -2. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -4. -8. -11. -13. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -16. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 0. -1. -1. -4. -7. -14. -23. -30. -37. -43. -48. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082010 EIGHT 08/20/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.4 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.2 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 48.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082010 EIGHT 08/20/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY