* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952010 08/20/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 32 35 45 58 71 84 91 92 91 90 V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 32 35 45 58 71 84 91 92 91 90 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 36 43 52 62 74 85 89 85 SHEAR (KT) 12 10 7 8 9 8 8 13 5 5 12 14 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 3 1 1 0 1 -3 -1 0 2 6 0 SHEAR DIR 87 88 106 117 135 96 70 85 54 354 278 246 265 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.1 27.7 27.5 27.7 28.0 28.1 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 138 138 138 139 141 141 139 134 133 135 139 140 140 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 133 135 137 140 140 138 134 133 136 138 135 133 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.2 -53.3 -53.8 -53.5 -53.4 -53.3 -53.1 -53.0 -52.1 -52.2 -51.9 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 77 76 76 80 81 81 80 80 77 76 68 66 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 10 10 11 12 15 18 22 22 24 25 26 850 MB ENV VOR 30 29 35 43 53 64 76 75 76 70 70 55 28 200 MB DIV 26 35 59 85 93 102 106 131 89 65 61 89 68 LAND (KM) 1010 1061 1111 1197 1284 1492 1730 1888 1781 1655 1546 1542 1496 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.3 11.5 11.7 11.9 12.4 12.8 13.6 14.6 16.0 17.2 18.5 20.0 LONG(DEG W) 26.0 26.6 27.2 28.1 29.0 31.1 33.4 35.9 39.0 42.3 45.7 48.5 50.8 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 8 9 10 11 12 14 17 17 16 14 12 HEAT CONTENT 18 19 19 18 20 20 17 13 16 36 40 39 38 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 547 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 12. 19. 24. 28. 31. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 10. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 7. 9. 9. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 8. 9. 10. 9. 9. 9. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 10. 21. 33. 46. 59. 66. 67. 66. 65. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952010 INVEST 08/20/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.5 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 38.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.8 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.6 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952010 INVEST 08/20/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)