* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * EIGHT EP082010 08/20/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 28 27 25 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 28 27 25 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 32 31 28 25 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 22 27 30 24 19 14 23 20 15 14 15 15 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 0 0 1 0 0 0 -1 0 0 1 3 N/A SHEAR DIR 62 65 69 81 96 134 137 146 138 136 138 148 N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.3 28.1 27.6 27.1 26.3 25.7 24.7 23.7 22.5 21.5 21.1 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 148 146 144 139 133 124 118 108 98 86 75 70 N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.2 -51.6 -51.9 -52.2 -52.0 -51.9 -51.5 -51.4 -51.3 -51.5 -51.5 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 7 6 5 4 4 2 2 0 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 79 75 74 74 70 62 61 55 56 50 51 47 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 6 5 4 4 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 68 52 58 62 51 47 46 38 30 24 15 13 N/A 200 MB DIV 8 -1 17 12 -11 -8 -21 -23 -10 -20 -20 -7 N/A LAND (KM) 264 290 332 331 300 303 347 419 461 521 620 695 N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.8 19.3 19.7 20.0 20.2 20.5 20.7 21.1 21.4 22.0 22.6 22.7 N/A LONG(DEG W) 107.6 108.2 108.8 109.5 110.2 111.4 112.4 113.6 114.9 116.4 117.9 119.1 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 6 5 5 6 7 8 6 6 N/A HEAT CONTENT 17 18 16 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 578 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 13. 13. 12. 9. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -7. -9. -10. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -9. -11. -13. -15. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -2. -3. -5. -8. -13. -18. -24. -30. -36. -38. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082010 EIGHT 08/20/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.2 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.2 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 47.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082010 EIGHT 08/20/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY