* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952010 08/20/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 39 51 65 78 86 90 91 92 92 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 34 39 51 65 78 86 90 91 92 92 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 30 32 39 47 57 68 78 84 85 82 SHEAR (KT) 7 10 12 13 10 12 14 9 9 11 14 15 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -1 0 0 0 0 0 -2 2 0 2 SHEAR DIR 75 74 91 117 99 88 69 41 13 287 266 255 251 SST (C) 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.0 27.6 27.4 27.7 27.9 28.1 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 138 140 140 142 140 141 137 133 131 135 138 140 142 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 136 137 139 138 139 136 133 132 135 136 135 134 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -53.8 -53.5 -53.0 -53.6 -52.6 -53.3 -52.2 -52.6 -51.8 -52.4 -51.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 7 7 9 9 700-500 MB RH 74 77 80 81 82 83 82 81 75 75 72 66 65 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 10 11 13 14 19 20 20 21 23 24 27 850 MB ENV VOR 38 44 51 62 66 65 70 68 62 61 57 37 36 200 MB DIV 28 53 89 104 134 105 132 121 62 57 85 108 135 LAND (KM) 1112 1174 1238 1313 1389 1567 1778 1919 1794 1673 1608 1592 1504 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.2 11.4 11.7 11.9 12.4 13.1 14.0 15.3 16.6 18.1 19.5 20.9 LONG(DEG W) 27.0 27.7 28.4 29.2 30.0 31.8 33.9 36.4 39.5 42.8 46.2 49.2 51.6 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 8 9 10 12 15 17 17 17 15 13 HEAT CONTENT 21 19 19 20 21 21 17 11 19 34 40 42 37 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 505 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 19. 24. 28. 31. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 11. 10. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 10. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 14. 26. 40. 53. 61. 65. 66. 67. 67. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952010 INVEST 08/20/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 81.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.8 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 46.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.1 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 37% is 2.9 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952010 INVEST 08/20/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)