* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * EIGHT EP082010 08/20/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 27 25 24 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 29 27 25 24 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 29 28 26 23 20 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 23 30 25 23 19 20 22 17 10 15 15 16 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 3 -2 -5 1 -1 1 0 0 0 4 N/A SHEAR DIR 63 64 74 86 123 141 138 130 129 135 153 165 N/A SST (C) 28.1 27.8 27.4 27.0 26.5 25.8 25.4 24.6 23.7 22.5 21.5 21.1 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 141 136 133 127 119 115 107 98 86 75 70 N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.6 -51.8 -52.1 -52.3 -52.0 -51.9 -51.3 -51.5 -51.3 -51.4 -51.5 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 4 4 4 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 76 73 74 71 66 60 56 55 51 49 47 46 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 58 63 69 60 54 59 44 40 38 31 21 7 N/A 200 MB DIV 1 31 23 -2 -12 -6 -8 -13 -6 -7 -3 -18 N/A LAND (KM) 331 371 323 302 300 341 401 456 482 551 615 690 N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.2 19.6 20.0 20.2 20.4 20.6 20.6 21.0 21.3 21.8 22.5 22.6 N/A LONG(DEG W) 108.6 109.2 109.7 110.4 111.1 112.2 113.0 114.0 115.1 116.6 117.8 118.9 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 7 6 4 4 6 6 7 6 5 N/A HEAT CONTENT 13 12 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 608 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 10. 9. 6. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -12. -14. -15. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -5. -6. -10. -13. -18. -22. -27. -32. -38. -40. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082010 EIGHT 08/20/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.0 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.2 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 37.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082010 EIGHT 08/20/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY