* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * EIGHT EP082010 08/21/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 27 26 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 29 27 26 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 28 26 24 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 32 28 26 21 22 25 18 14 8 9 13 15 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 0 -3 -2 -1 1 0 1 3 0 3 N/A SHEAR DIR 67 73 85 108 141 143 132 125 137 152 179 176 N/A SST (C) 27.4 27.0 26.5 26.2 25.9 25.2 24.9 24.0 23.2 22.0 21.2 21.6 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 137 132 127 123 120 112 110 100 93 80 72 75 N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.8 -52.2 -52.2 -52.0 -52.0 -51.6 -51.6 -51.5 -51.7 -51.5 -51.7 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 3 3 3 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 75 74 72 66 61 61 55 55 51 53 52 53 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 5 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 62 65 61 61 58 49 42 29 36 36 26 21 N/A 200 MB DIV 29 22 -2 -13 -12 -12 -17 -5 -19 -7 -15 -2 N/A LAND (KM) 334 313 306 315 335 404 478 510 572 656 739 806 N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.9 20.1 20.3 20.5 20.6 20.8 20.7 21.0 21.1 21.6 22.1 22.2 N/A LONG(DEG W) 109.8 110.4 111.0 111.6 112.1 113.2 114.0 115.1 116.2 117.7 119.0 120.1 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 6 5 5 4 5 5 6 7 6 5 N/A HEAT CONTENT 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 525 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 6. 5. 2. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -17. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -6. -9. -12. -13. -13. -14. -15. -14. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -4. -6. -12. -20. -28. -34. -39. -44. -50. -51. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082010 EIGHT 08/21/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.6 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.0 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 10.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082010 EIGHT 08/21/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY