* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952010 08/21/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 38 50 63 74 82 85 88 90 90 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 34 38 50 63 74 82 85 88 90 90 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 35 42 51 62 70 75 76 77 SHEAR (KT) 15 11 11 9 10 12 7 3 9 12 10 4 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 1 0 0 -2 0 0 -3 0 3 4 0 SHEAR DIR 82 115 115 103 104 81 74 10 271 272 263 295 254 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.0 27.5 27.3 27.6 27.9 28.0 28.3 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 139 140 141 141 140 138 132 131 134 138 138 141 142 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 138 139 139 139 137 133 131 134 134 131 132 129 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.7 -53.2 -53.4 -53.6 -52.5 -53.4 -52.0 -52.4 -51.6 -52.0 -50.7 -51.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 7 8 8 9 10 700-500 MB RH 82 82 83 82 85 81 79 77 75 71 66 66 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 13 13 15 18 20 20 23 24 26 28 31 850 MB ENV VOR 55 64 66 68 70 72 69 60 63 65 47 38 19 200 MB DIV 83 91 114 98 87 127 95 65 58 95 101 87 61 LAND (KM) 1164 1231 1302 1394 1488 1718 1989 1842 1712 1664 1610 1497 1369 LAT (DEG N) 11.2 11.6 12.0 12.3 12.6 13.6 14.6 16.0 17.3 18.8 19.9 21.1 22.4 LONG(DEG W) 27.6 28.4 29.2 30.2 31.1 33.4 36.2 39.6 43.1 46.5 49.3 51.7 53.3 STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 9 10 11 13 16 18 18 16 13 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 19 19 20 20 19 14 9 16 33 30 41 37 37 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 636 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 19. 24. 28. 31. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 25. 38. 49. 57. 60. 63. 65. 65. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952010 INVEST 08/21/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 94.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.8 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952010 INVEST 08/21/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)