* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * EIGHT EP082010 08/21/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 23 21 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 23 21 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 23 21 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 28 25 19 18 25 21 18 10 10 13 14 17 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 1 -2 -1 0 0 2 -1 4 0 5 2 N/A SHEAR DIR 68 73 97 135 147 150 131 132 156 187 187 174 N/A SST (C) 26.8 26.4 25.9 25.6 25.3 24.9 24.4 23.6 22.6 21.5 21.4 21.7 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 131 126 121 117 113 109 104 96 87 75 73 76 N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.0 -52.1 -52.0 -52.1 -52.0 -51.6 -51.6 -51.5 -51.5 -51.5 -51.6 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 75 73 67 63 62 57 57 51 52 51 50 45 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 65 65 63 58 58 45 45 48 36 38 13 22 N/A 200 MB DIV 23 0 1 -2 -13 -22 -15 -3 -9 -15 -14 -2 N/A LAND (KM) 306 308 328 351 379 440 507 547 610 715 777 821 N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.2 20.4 20.6 20.7 20.8 20.9 20.8 21.0 21.3 21.8 22.3 22.5 N/A LONG(DEG W) 110.6 111.3 112.0 112.5 112.9 113.7 114.7 115.7 116.9 118.5 119.8 120.7 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 4 4 4 5 5 7 7 5 4 N/A HEAT CONTENT 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 570 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 5. 2. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -14. -16. -18. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -12. -13. -13. -14. -13. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -7. -10. -15. -23. -29. -34. -39. -44. -49. -51. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082010 EIGHT 08/21/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.1 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 13.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082010 EIGHT 08/21/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY