* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952010 08/21/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 35 40 53 65 76 81 85 89 90 90 V (KT) LAND 25 27 31 35 40 53 65 76 81 85 89 90 90 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 32 38 47 56 66 71 74 74 75 SHEAR (KT) 14 13 12 14 17 14 12 6 11 12 10 10 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -1 -3 -2 -6 0 0 0 0 2 2 1 SHEAR DIR 76 73 73 65 55 50 29 349 244 220 238 190 262 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.1 27.7 27.4 27.5 27.6 28.0 28.3 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 142 142 140 140 141 138 135 133 134 135 139 141 141 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 137 136 136 136 137 137 136 137 133 132 128 124 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.3 -53.5 -53.7 -53.5 -53.3 -53.0 -52.4 -52.4 -52.0 -51.7 -50.7 -50.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 6 7 7 7 9 9 10 10 700-500 MB RH 80 80 80 83 84 82 76 75 71 63 57 58 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 13 14 15 17 19 20 22 23 27 29 30 850 MB ENV VOR 43 45 48 49 58 51 56 55 58 54 55 47 22 200 MB DIV 71 83 91 101 99 123 71 65 58 90 74 82 53 LAND (KM) 1536 1584 1632 1683 1735 1771 1863 1827 1794 1833 1616 1427 1378 LAT (DEG N) 10.6 10.7 10.8 11.0 11.2 12.0 13.5 15.9 18.5 20.9 22.7 24.1 25.2 LONG(DEG W) 31.0 31.5 32.0 32.6 33.1 34.3 36.5 39.7 43.5 47.4 50.9 53.4 54.6 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 6 6 6 10 16 21 22 20 16 10 7 HEAT CONTENT 31 32 31 29 27 21 12 18 26 25 30 32 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 597 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 19. 24. 28. 31. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 11. 10. 9. 8. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 7. 10. 12. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 10. 9. 9. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 10. 15. 28. 40. 51. 56. 60. 64. 65. 65. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952010 INVEST 08/21/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 89.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.5 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 54.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.3 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 30.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 34% is 2.7 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952010 INVEST 08/21/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)