* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932010 08/21/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 27 30 40 49 56 60 60 60 61 62 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 27 30 40 49 56 60 60 60 61 62 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 23 24 28 32 37 41 44 45 46 46 SHEAR (KT) 10 9 1 4 1 9 14 16 23 23 27 31 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -2 -1 0 -4 -1 -2 2 5 -1 -2 -7 SHEAR DIR 33 20 358 328 5 102 105 92 95 93 100 100 98 SST (C) 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.0 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 160 161 162 162 163 159 158 159 154 151 151 149 146 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -52.9 -52.3 -52.7 -53.1 -51.7 -52.4 -51.5 -52.1 -51.2 -52.0 -51.4 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 7 8 6 5 9 6 9 5 10 6 8 5 700-500 MB RH 83 81 81 82 83 80 78 77 73 72 72 70 74 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 92 88 81 90 86 68 71 70 77 68 50 43 56 200 MB DIV 59 60 89 123 107 117 110 68 59 62 55 60 62 LAND (KM) 98 108 119 148 160 55 41 109 212 293 370 453 514 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.2 14.3 14.5 14.6 15.2 15.6 15.7 15.5 15.4 15.2 14.9 14.7 LONG(DEG W) 93.0 93.3 93.6 94.2 94.7 96.2 97.9 99.8 101.7 103.3 104.7 105.7 106.4 STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 5 6 7 8 9 9 8 7 6 5 3 HEAT CONTENT 39 41 43 45 45 37 37 35 32 31 11 9 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 629 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 7. 16. 26. 35. 40. 45. 48. 50. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 4. 2. 0. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -10. -12. -12. -12. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 20. 29. 36. 40. 40. 40. 41. 42. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932010 INVEST 08/21/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.2 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 87.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 141.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 79.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 42.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 57% is 4.8 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 36% is 4.4 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 25% is 4.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 15% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932010 INVEST 08/21/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED