* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL852010 08/21/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 38 43 48 59 70 81 89 91 93 93 94 V (KT) LAND 30 33 38 43 48 59 70 81 89 91 93 93 94 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 36 39 43 52 63 74 85 91 94 93 89 SHEAR (KT) 13 14 16 15 19 14 17 8 13 7 5 11 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -3 -1 -4 -4 -4 -1 0 2 2 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 62 60 65 58 59 66 53 3 10 270 264 241 190 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.1 28.0 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 142 143 141 139 138 137 139 139 140 143 144 144 142 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 143 141 138 138 140 140 139 137 141 139 133 128 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.4 -53.7 -53.5 -52.7 -53.0 -52.0 -52.5 -51.4 -51.9 -51.1 -51.0 -50.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 6 6 7 7 8 9 10 11 10 700-500 MB RH 80 79 80 80 79 78 71 70 65 65 59 56 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 14 15 15 17 17 19 20 22 22 24 24 28 850 MB ENV VOR 46 48 51 62 65 78 85 85 83 65 66 50 37 200 MB DIV 71 81 84 75 74 82 48 77 95 58 88 83 81 LAND (KM) 1587 1689 1735 1726 1727 1682 1455 1363 1361 1448 1405 1330 1354 LAT (DEG N) 10.9 11.2 11.4 11.8 12.1 12.8 13.5 14.5 16.0 17.9 20.1 22.1 23.9 LONG(DEG W) 31.6 32.7 33.7 34.8 35.9 38.7 42.1 44.7 47.0 49.3 52.1 53.6 54.1 STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 11 11 13 16 15 14 14 16 15 11 9 HEAT CONTENT 28 28 25 21 17 22 29 29 40 50 44 40 34 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 609 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 3. 7. 12. 18. 23. 27. 29. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 14. 13. 13. 12. 11. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 13. 18. 29. 40. 51. 59. 62. 63. 63. 64. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL852010 INVEST 08/21/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 77.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.1 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL852010 INVEST 08/21/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)