* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952010 08/21/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 43 48 59 70 79 86 87 87 86 88 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 43 48 59 70 79 86 87 87 86 88 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 36 39 43 51 62 73 82 85 85 83 81 SHEAR (KT) 13 15 14 16 20 13 10 9 7 16 12 13 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 -1 -5 -1 0 -2 1 -1 0 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 62 61 58 58 55 64 52 290 284 237 221 228 209 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.2 27.8 27.4 27.5 27.7 27.7 28.2 28.5 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 141 140 141 140 139 135 132 134 136 135 140 143 142 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 135 136 136 136 135 133 136 135 130 130 127 124 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.4 -53.7 -53.5 -52.8 -53.1 -52.3 -52.5 -51.8 -52.1 -51.3 -51.0 -50.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 6 6 7 7 7 9 9 10 11 700-500 MB RH 81 81 82 83 82 81 76 75 65 57 59 56 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 14 15 15 17 17 19 20 22 22 24 24 28 850 MB ENV VOR 44 46 46 55 52 58 60 68 72 60 56 52 49 200 MB DIV 69 84 85 68 78 84 49 59 112 35 68 77 63 LAND (KM) 1612 1657 1704 1756 1784 1837 1851 1771 1761 1717 1498 1306 1233 LAT (DEG N) 10.8 11.0 11.2 11.6 12.0 13.1 15.0 17.1 19.4 21.2 22.4 22.8 23.1 LONG(DEG W) 31.8 32.3 32.8 33.4 34.0 35.8 38.5 42.0 45.7 49.1 52.0 54.1 55.0 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 6 7 9 13 18 20 19 17 12 7 4 HEAT CONTENT 29 29 28 24 21 15 13 29 24 28 38 37 48 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):281/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 580 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 17. 22. 25. 27. 29. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 11. 11. 10. 9. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 7. 7. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 7. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 18. 29. 40. 49. 56. 57. 57. 56. 58. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952010 INVEST 08/21/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.9 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 47.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.1 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 26.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.6 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952010 INVEST 08/21/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)