* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * EIGHT EP082010 08/21/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 22 20 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 24 22 20 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 23 22 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 21 20 25 24 26 18 13 12 13 13 14 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 0 -1 -3 0 0 1 3 6 3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 92 111 134 138 147 138 157 181 192 173 175 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.1 25.8 25.4 25.2 24.9 24.6 23.7 22.9 21.8 21.6 21.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 122 119 115 113 110 106 97 89 78 75 77 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.2 -52.2 -52.3 -52.2 -51.7 -51.7 -51.4 -51.3 -51.2 -51.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 63 62 62 57 54 49 51 50 49 48 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 6 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 65 59 63 54 52 43 45 40 42 18 28 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -6 -3 -4 -17 -13 -26 -22 -9 -19 -21 -21 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 304 330 363 404 447 522 564 632 726 796 843 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.6 20.7 20.8 20.8 20.8 20.6 20.8 20.9 21.3 21.9 22.0 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 111.6 112.2 112.7 113.2 113.7 114.6 115.7 116.8 118.3 119.6 120.4 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 5 4 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 679 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 4. 2. 1. -1. -2. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -14. -16. -18. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -6. -10. -13. -13. -14. -14. -15. -15. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -5. -7. -13. -21. -28. -34. -41. -46. -49. -51. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082010 EIGHT 08/21/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.3 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.7 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 8.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082010 EIGHT 08/21/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY