* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932010 08/21/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 37 42 52 60 66 68 68 67 68 68 V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 37 42 52 60 66 68 68 67 68 68 V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 30 33 36 42 48 54 57 59 59 59 61 SHEAR (KT) 6 3 6 3 6 14 16 19 20 23 30 19 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -1 0 0 0 -1 0 2 0 -6 0 0 SHEAR DIR 44 54 329 7 72 97 83 81 96 91 91 78 67 SST (C) 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.6 29.3 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.9 28.9 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 159 161 161 162 162 160 156 155 153 150 148 149 151 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.2 -52.6 -52.8 -52.1 -51.9 -51.7 -51.9 -51.8 -51.7 -51.3 -51.7 -51.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 6 5 7 6 8 7 7 6 6 5 6 700-500 MB RH 82 82 83 83 82 81 76 76 76 77 77 78 81 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 89 87 101 100 80 84 72 70 77 61 56 50 59 200 MB DIV 74 89 125 115 96 119 89 102 93 95 131 85 80 LAND (KM) 106 120 134 152 149 67 80 144 203 254 258 260 216 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.1 14.2 14.5 14.7 15.1 15.2 15.0 14.9 14.7 14.7 14.6 14.9 LONG(DEG W) 93.0 93.4 93.7 94.2 94.7 96.1 97.6 99.0 100.1 100.8 100.9 100.7 100.4 STM SPEED (KT) 2 4 4 5 6 7 7 6 4 2 0 1 2 HEAT CONTENT 35 37 40 45 44 39 37 9 11 9 9 8 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):180/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 623 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 8. 16. 25. 32. 37. 41. 44. 46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 3. 0. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -13. -14. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 17. 27. 35. 41. 43. 43. 42. 43. 43. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932010 INVEST 08/21/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.8 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 99.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.2 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 78.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 40.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 86% is 7.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 59% is 7.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 38% is 6.5 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 38% is 9.9 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932010 INVEST 08/21/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY