* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * SIX AL062010 08/22/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 38 49 60 73 78 82 84 84 84 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 38 49 60 73 78 82 84 84 84 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 37 45 56 66 71 72 71 71 SHEAR (KT) 15 13 16 17 14 10 5 13 10 13 14 15 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 0 -2 -3 -1 -1 1 1 3 3 0 -4 SHEAR DIR 55 65 56 49 50 29 49 305 249 271 236 243 198 SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.1 28.0 27.7 27.7 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 142 141 139 138 134 135 138 139 140 140 142 145 146 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 140 139 139 134 136 139 138 136 132 131 134 133 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -52.3 -52.4 -51.9 -52.0 -51.3 -51.3 -50.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 9 10 11 10 11 700-500 MB RH 82 82 81 80 80 77 68 65 59 58 57 57 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 14 15 15 17 19 19 23 22 25 27 27 29 850 MB ENV VOR 50 52 58 63 71 85 88 101 90 66 53 26 44 200 MB DIV 74 75 58 67 71 66 74 91 78 63 59 41 47 LAND (KM) 1651 1734 1790 1802 1828 1688 1527 1472 1548 1511 1411 1302 1271 LAT (DEG N) 11.2 11.7 12.1 12.7 13.2 14.0 15.0 16.6 18.6 20.3 21.8 23.6 25.6 LONG(DEG W) 32.3 33.2 34.1 35.4 36.6 39.6 42.9 46.0 48.6 50.9 52.7 54.5 56.2 STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 12 13 14 16 17 16 15 12 12 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 28 24 20 16 13 20 38 40 39 36 39 38 35 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 678 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 19. 24. 29. 31. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 6. 5. 7. 8. 8. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 13. 24. 35. 48. 53. 57. 59. 59. 59. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062010 SIX 08/22/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.1 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 33.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.5 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.2 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062010 SIX 08/22/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)