* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * EIGHT EP082010 08/22/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 22 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 24 22 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 23 21 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 17 24 25 25 22 14 11 12 17 20 16 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 -3 -1 0 -1 0 4 1 2 2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 123 135 142 146 141 132 154 184 177 170 178 N/A N/A SST (C) 25.5 25.2 24.9 24.6 24.4 24.0 23.3 22.5 21.6 21.4 21.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 116 113 110 106 104 100 93 85 76 73 76 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 -52.3 -52.1 -52.2 -51.7 -51.8 -51.8 -51.7 -51.7 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 63 64 59 54 55 51 53 50 50 44 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 61 61 54 49 40 38 36 27 28 13 9 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -1 0 -14 -18 -16 -20 -23 -16 -22 0 -11 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 317 354 393 434 459 504 558 618 720 770 816 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.0 21.1 21.1 21.1 21.1 21.0 21.1 21.3 21.7 22.3 22.4 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 112.3 112.8 113.3 113.8 114.3 115.0 116.0 117.0 118.5 119.7 120.5 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 5 4 4 5 6 7 5 4 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 636 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. -1. -3. -5. -6. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -3. -6. -8. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -13. -15. -17. -19. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -10. -14. -15. -16. -17. -19. -18. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -5. -8. -15. -23. -33. -40. -48. -54. -58. -60. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082010 EIGHT 08/22/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.9 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.8 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082010 EIGHT 08/22/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY