* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * NINE EP092010 08/22/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 35 39 44 50 58 65 69 71 71 70 71 71 V (KT) LAND 30 35 39 44 50 58 65 69 71 71 70 71 71 V (KT) LGE mod 30 34 38 42 46 54 60 64 65 66 67 69 71 SHEAR (KT) 2 4 3 6 13 22 19 20 19 23 22 19 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 -1 -4 -4 -3 0 -3 -2 -2 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 308 330 39 60 70 83 81 77 89 94 97 93 98 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.1 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 160 160 159 159 158 153 151 151 152 152 152 152 152 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.9 -53.2 -52.6 -51.9 -52.7 -51.5 -52.6 -51.6 -52.5 -51.1 -52.0 -51.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 5 4 7 8 5 7 4 7 5 8 6 8 700-500 MB RH 82 83 86 84 83 80 80 79 78 79 79 81 83 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 85 93 91 77 70 67 54 52 50 45 59 69 70 200 MB DIV 108 111 104 85 109 110 119 113 109 90 66 67 45 LAND (KM) 151 181 211 252 242 234 238 246 249 255 246 248 262 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 13.9 13.8 13.8 13.7 13.6 13.7 13.8 14.1 14.6 15.3 15.8 16.1 LONG(DEG W) 93.6 94.0 94.3 94.8 95.3 96.4 97.3 98.3 99.3 100.6 102.0 103.2 104.3 STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 4 5 5 5 4 5 6 7 7 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 37 37 37 37 35 11 7 0 3 8 24 33 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 22. 29. 33. 36. 39. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 14. 20. 28. 35. 39. 41. 41. 40. 41. 41. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092010 NINE 08/22/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 103.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.1 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 83.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 91.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 36.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 88% is 7.5 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 61% is 7.6 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 47% is 8.2 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 43% is 10.6 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092010 NINE 08/22/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY