* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * SIX AL062010 08/22/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 40 45 55 63 73 79 83 83 83 81 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 40 45 55 63 73 79 83 83 83 81 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 35 37 40 47 56 66 75 78 80 80 80 SHEAR (KT) 19 18 21 19 15 7 9 7 10 6 16 14 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -4 -3 0 -2 0 4 6 -1 -2 -4 SHEAR DIR 70 67 62 66 68 33 327 322 292 198 211 205 205 SST (C) 28.3 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.8 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.2 28.4 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 141 138 137 135 134 133 136 139 138 138 140 143 145 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 136 135 133 132 133 136 137 133 129 129 132 130 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.4 -53.0 -52.9 -53.2 -52.0 -52.4 -51.6 -51.8 -51.2 -50.8 -50.1 -50.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 5 5 7 7 8 8 9 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 82 82 80 78 77 74 71 67 64 60 59 61 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 15 15 16 18 18 19 22 23 25 27 29 28 850 MB ENV VOR 54 61 59 68 74 74 76 77 62 61 52 69 72 200 MB DIV 67 39 40 56 73 66 58 65 78 76 54 33 48 LAND (KM) 1708 1800 1812 1826 1850 1710 1569 1536 1626 1602 1455 1354 1352 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 12.2 12.6 13.1 13.5 14.4 15.4 17.1 19.2 21.0 22.3 24.1 26.2 LONG(DEG W) 33.0 34.0 34.9 36.0 37.1 39.7 42.8 45.7 48.2 50.4 52.4 54.2 55.7 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 11 12 12 15 16 16 14 13 12 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 23 20 18 15 13 21 36 40 33 32 39 33 28 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 666 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 12. 17. 22. 25. 27. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 15. 25. 33. 43. 49. 53. 54. 53. 51. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062010 SIX 08/22/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.9 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 17.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062010 SIX 08/22/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)