* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * NINE EP092010 08/22/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 35 39 45 48 56 62 71 74 79 75 79 78 V (KT) LAND 30 35 39 45 48 56 62 71 74 79 75 79 78 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 36 40 43 49 53 54 55 57 60 64 68 SHEAR (KT) 2 7 12 16 20 18 24 17 17 15 16 16 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -2 -2 0 0 0 3 0 1 -1 1 2 SHEAR DIR 84 62 66 69 81 87 89 70 67 78 56 82 74 SST (C) 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.3 29.2 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 160 159 158 156 155 152 152 151 151 152 152 154 154 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -52.7 -52.1 -52.5 -52.2 -52.1 -51.7 -51.9 -51.6 -51.2 -51.0 -50.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 7 7 5 7 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 84 85 84 85 83 78 76 76 76 76 77 77 78 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 9 10 9 9 10 13 13 16 13 15 15 850 MB ENV VOR 93 89 72 68 72 56 50 53 40 39 53 62 72 200 MB DIV 108 101 79 88 112 106 111 98 111 103 63 69 42 LAND (KM) 204 249 256 239 233 249 255 266 257 250 265 217 211 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 13.7 13.6 13.6 13.6 13.6 13.8 14.1 14.5 15.0 15.6 16.4 17.3 LONG(DEG W) 94.1 94.7 95.2 95.7 96.2 97.3 98.7 99.7 100.4 101.4 102.8 104.0 105.2 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 5 5 6 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 35 36 34 27 14 7 0 3 7 13 31 34 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 538 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 22. 28. 32. 35. 38. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 15. 15. 15. 14. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 8. 7. 11. 8. 10. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 2. 1. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 15. 18. 26. 32. 41. 44. 49. 45. 49. 48. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092010 NINE 08/22/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.6 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 97.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.3 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 83.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 84.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 29.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 52% is 4.4 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 32% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 24% is 4.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 15% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092010 NINE 08/22/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY