* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * SIX AL062010 08/22/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 39 43 53 62 70 75 77 77 78 77 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 39 43 53 62 70 75 77 77 78 77 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 35 37 40 46 54 62 67 68 67 67 70 SHEAR (KT) 18 18 20 16 12 7 13 9 15 12 17 13 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 0 0 1 -1 1 2 5 -3 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 69 63 67 69 58 28 311 273 264 228 251 202 250 SST (C) 28.2 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.8 28.0 28.0 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 139 136 136 133 133 133 136 139 138 140 141 143 144 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 133 133 132 131 132 134 137 133 131 129 128 127 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -52.9 -52.3 -52.2 -51.6 -51.8 -50.9 -51.0 -50.3 -49.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 9 9 11 10 11 9 700-500 MB RH 81 79 77 77 76 71 72 67 61 62 62 63 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 17 17 19 20 20 23 24 27 28 30 32 33 850 MB ENV VOR 59 56 57 67 71 65 62 49 32 33 8 37 51 200 MB DIV 34 34 48 66 80 65 62 57 77 71 21 95 11 LAND (KM) 1795 1812 1822 1841 1817 1672 1580 1549 1611 1558 1419 1326 1267 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.6 12.9 13.4 13.8 14.9 16.0 17.5 19.4 21.1 22.7 23.9 24.9 LONG(DEG W) 33.9 34.8 35.6 36.8 37.9 40.7 43.4 46.2 48.9 51.1 52.9 54.4 55.7 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 11 12 13 15 14 16 14 12 11 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 20 18 16 13 15 29 37 40 40 34 38 36 40 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 637 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 32.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 17. 21. 25. 27. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 6. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 23. 32. 40. 45. 47. 47. 48. 47. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062010 SIX 08/22/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.1 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 40.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 32.4 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062010 SIX 08/22/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)