* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * FRANK EP092010 08/22/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 46 51 55 60 65 70 74 74 71 67 65 65 V (KT) LAND 40 46 51 55 60 65 70 74 74 71 67 65 65 V (KT) LGE mod 40 45 50 55 59 64 67 67 67 67 69 71 73 SHEAR (KT) 9 14 15 21 21 24 21 21 17 16 13 17 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -2 0 -2 -1 1 3 0 0 -1 -4 -2 SHEAR DIR 61 75 67 81 90 75 87 74 79 85 91 93 98 SST (C) 29.7 29.5 29.3 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.6 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 160 158 156 155 153 153 153 152 153 153 153 149 145 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -52.7 -51.9 -52.4 -52.8 -51.5 -52.2 -51.1 -51.9 -50.9 -51.6 -50.5 -51.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 7 7 6 5 8 5 9 5 8 5 8 4 700-500 MB RH 86 82 86 83 81 79 78 78 78 78 74 76 76 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 10 9 10 9 10 12 11 9 7 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 89 71 70 70 67 50 57 57 59 52 53 69 71 200 MB DIV 106 74 81 112 112 114 99 97 73 63 33 70 59 LAND (KM) 232 211 200 197 200 215 232 243 233 228 260 283 349 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 13.9 13.9 14.0 14.1 14.3 14.7 15.2 15.9 16.4 16.9 17.4 18.0 LONG(DEG W) 95.0 95.6 96.1 96.9 97.6 99.0 100.3 101.7 102.9 104.2 105.4 106.7 108.0 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 39 36 26 12 7 2 9 13 28 33 24 22 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 520 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 14. 19. 24. 26. 29. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. 12. 11. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -12. -13. -13. -14. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 4. 2. -1. -3. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 15. 20. 25. 30. 34. 34. 31. 27. 25. 25. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092010 FRANK 08/22/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.9 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 97.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 83.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 95.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 24.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 40% is 3.4 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092010 FRANK 08/22/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED