* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * SIX AL062010 08/22/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 34 38 42 51 59 65 69 71 73 73 73 V (KT) LAND 30 31 34 38 42 51 59 65 69 71 73 73 73 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 34 37 43 50 54 56 55 55 57 61 SHEAR (KT) 15 18 13 9 4 7 9 17 17 19 14 11 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 1 0 4 1 2 1 7 -1 0 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 72 72 71 63 41 301 278 270 262 254 220 210 14 SST (C) 27.9 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.7 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 136 133 132 132 132 134 137 138 139 140 142 143 144 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 130 130 130 130 133 136 133 131 129 129 128 126 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -52.9 -52.3 -52.4 -51.5 -52.0 -51.2 -51.5 -50.4 -50.5 -49.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 7 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 79 77 76 73 70 72 63 67 67 67 65 61 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 17 19 20 20 23 24 26 28 29 32 33 32 850 MB ENV VOR 59 62 64 68 65 58 43 35 37 28 36 47 63 200 MB DIV 37 47 66 69 73 51 58 72 88 28 78 28 77 LAND (KM) 1852 1895 1913 1845 1764 1651 1579 1593 1588 1484 1351 1277 1240 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.6 14.0 14.4 14.8 15.8 17.2 18.7 20.4 21.9 23.2 24.5 25.6 LONG(DEG W) 34.6 35.7 36.7 38.1 39.4 42.1 45.1 47.8 50.0 52.0 53.8 55.3 56.6 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 14 14 15 16 14 13 11 10 9 7 HEAT CONTENT 16 14 11 12 19 35 41 35 35 39 32 39 38 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 664 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 17. 21. 24. 27. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 2. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 9. 9. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 12. 22. 29. 35. 39. 41. 43. 43. 43. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062010 SIX 08/22/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.6 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 52.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.6 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062010 SIX 08/22/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)