* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * FRANK EP092010 08/22/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 57 62 66 69 73 74 72 69 68 67 65 62 V (KT) LAND 50 57 62 66 69 73 74 72 69 68 67 65 62 V (KT) LGE mod 50 58 65 71 74 77 76 75 73 72 72 72 70 SHEAR (KT) 16 18 24 24 23 23 24 25 16 12 11 15 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 1 0 -1 1 3 0 5 3 1 0 1 SHEAR DIR 72 71 82 83 82 79 79 72 106 91 111 111 133 SST (C) 29.4 29.2 29.0 28.9 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.9 29.1 29.0 28.6 28.1 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 157 155 154 153 154 153 153 152 155 153 149 145 136 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.1 -52.4 -52.8 -52.2 -51.9 -51.6 -51.6 -51.6 -51.3 -51.5 -51.3 -51.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 6 5 7 6 7 7 8 7 7 5 5 700-500 MB RH 83 85 83 81 78 78 73 73 72 71 71 72 68 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 9 10 10 10 9 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 81 78 74 71 60 57 68 77 64 58 69 80 68 200 MB DIV 69 88 110 115 96 115 76 66 27 36 21 34 7 LAND (KM) 217 212 224 221 220 243 249 244 204 240 292 379 477 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 13.8 13.8 14.0 14.1 14.5 15.1 15.8 16.6 17.1 17.3 17.8 18.6 LONG(DEG W) 95.7 96.4 97.1 97.9 98.6 100.1 101.6 102.9 104.1 105.4 106.7 108.2 109.9 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 7 7 6 7 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 31 15 9 3 1 6 13 28 33 27 24 4 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 511 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 15. 18. 20. 21. 21. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -10. -9. -9. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 12. 11. 10. 9. PERSISTENCE 4. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 12. 16. 19. 23. 24. 22. 19. 18. 17. 15. 12. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092010 FRANK 08/22/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.3 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 95.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 95.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092010 FRANK 08/22/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED