* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * DANIELLE AL062010 08/23/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 50 55 60 68 74 81 82 85 86 84 85 V (KT) LAND 40 44 50 55 60 68 74 81 82 85 86 84 85 V (KT) LGE mod 40 44 49 54 59 68 76 79 78 78 80 83 86 SHEAR (KT) 13 10 6 7 4 11 7 14 4 14 13 11 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 0 2 0 -1 0 2 6 0 -2 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 87 77 66 38 359 285 259 269 234 252 211 237 204 SST (C) 27.7 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.7 27.9 27.9 28.1 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 133 131 130 131 131 135 137 136 139 142 144 145 144 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 128 127 129 128 132 133 129 130 130 130 127 125 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 -52.3 -52.4 -52.3 -51.8 -52.2 -51.5 -51.2 -50.7 -50.5 -50.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 8 9 9 10 9 10 10 11 700-500 MB RH 77 76 72 71 71 65 62 62 59 59 53 42 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 19 19 19 20 22 23 26 26 29 30 30 34 850 MB ENV VOR 71 73 71 71 71 68 61 54 56 76 131 139 141 200 MB DIV 48 76 66 71 56 56 74 75 75 41 38 -6 24 LAND (KM) 1917 1962 1911 1833 1767 1679 1633 1656 1580 1425 1318 1266 1239 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.4 14.8 15.3 15.8 17.0 18.3 19.7 21.1 22.6 24.1 25.4 26.3 LONG(DEG W) 35.3 36.5 37.6 39.0 40.4 43.2 46.1 48.6 50.8 52.8 54.6 56.1 57.3 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 13 14 15 15 14 13 12 12 10 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 13 10 11 15 26 35 39 33 33 39 35 36 33 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 689 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 6. 10. 13. 16. 18. 19. 20. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 7. 7. 7. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 15. 20. 28. 34. 41. 42. 45. 46. 44. 45. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062010 DANIELLE 08/23/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.4 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062010 DANIELLE 08/23/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062010 DANIELLE 08/23/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)