* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * FRANK EP092010 08/23/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 54 57 60 62 64 69 74 73 71 74 75 71 V (KT) LAND 50 54 57 60 62 64 69 74 73 71 74 75 71 V (KT) LGE mod 50 54 58 61 63 65 66 66 67 69 71 73 73 SHEAR (KT) 15 21 21 22 20 23 22 18 16 15 14 15 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 0 -1 0 2 3 -1 0 -2 0 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 64 74 78 89 84 80 71 76 66 82 112 96 102 SST (C) 29.2 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.1 28.9 28.6 28.0 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 155 154 154 154 154 153 153 153 154 152 149 143 135 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.6 -52.8 -52.3 -51.6 -52.3 -51.0 -51.7 -50.9 -51.4 -50.4 -50.8 -50.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 5 4 6 8 5 9 6 9 6 9 5 5 700-500 MB RH 84 83 80 78 79 73 74 75 74 70 70 70 68 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 9 10 10 9 11 13 11 10 13 14 14 850 MB ENV VOR 75 71 69 61 58 68 70 66 65 62 83 90 89 200 MB DIV 89 111 106 89 95 88 72 37 58 19 68 40 21 LAND (KM) 200 201 204 199 213 228 222 204 211 245 283 380 466 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.0 14.1 14.3 14.5 15.0 15.6 16.2 16.7 17.2 17.7 18.2 18.7 LONG(DEG W) 96.3 97.1 97.8 98.6 99.4 100.9 102.1 103.2 104.4 105.7 107.0 108.5 110.1 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 8 8 7 7 6 7 7 7 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 20 10 5 2 5 13 16 32 31 31 10 5 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 503 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 15. 18. 20. 21. 21. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. 9. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 2. 4. 2. 1. 5. 6. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 4. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 10. 12. 14. 19. 24. 23. 21. 24. 25. 21. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092010 FRANK 08/23/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.6 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 98.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.1 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 89.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092010 FRANK 08/23/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED