* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * DANIELLE AL062010 08/23/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 50 55 60 65 72 77 82 85 85 84 81 81 V (KT) LAND 45 50 55 60 65 72 77 82 85 85 84 81 81 V (KT) LGE mod 45 51 57 63 68 77 81 81 79 77 78 81 84 SHEAR (KT) 10 11 6 2 8 5 16 11 14 10 11 11 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 3 0 -3 0 -4 8 4 -1 1 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 83 70 47 51 277 242 274 238 246 221 224 168 200 SST (C) 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.5 27.7 27.8 27.8 28.1 28.3 28.5 28.5 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 130 129 129 130 132 135 136 135 139 141 143 143 144 ADJ. POT. INT. 126 125 126 127 130 131 130 126 128 128 127 125 125 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.1 -52.4 -52.3 -52.3 -51.3 -52.1 -51.3 -51.4 -50.7 -50.8 -49.9 -49.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 8 9 9 10 10 10 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 75 71 69 69 67 64 61 60 59 59 49 47 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 20 20 19 21 22 24 27 29 29 29 29 33 850 MB ENV VOR 71 68 61 68 63 54 45 36 31 51 67 89 89 200 MB DIV 63 55 54 48 42 62 44 109 66 36 14 44 25 LAND (KM) 2009 1959 1895 1830 1778 1698 1711 1686 1559 1441 1348 1335 1390 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.3 15.7 16.3 16.8 18.1 19.6 21.2 22.8 24.2 25.4 26.6 28.0 LONG(DEG W) 36.2 37.4 38.6 40.1 41.5 44.5 47.2 49.5 51.5 53.3 55.1 56.3 57.1 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 14 15 15 15 14 13 12 10 9 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 10 11 13 20 26 32 29 30 34 31 28 28 29 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 12 CX,CY: -7/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 648 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 13. 14. 15. 15. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 15. 20. 27. 32. 37. 40. 40. 39. 36. 36. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062010 DANIELLE 08/23/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.8 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 58.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.1 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062010 DANIELLE 08/23/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062010 DANIELLE 08/23/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 2( 2) 4( 6) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)