* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * FRANK EP092010 08/23/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 52 54 55 57 64 70 71 70 64 61 53 V (KT) LAND 50 51 52 54 55 57 64 70 71 70 64 61 53 V (KT) LGE mod 50 51 51 52 53 54 56 58 60 63 66 67 66 SHEAR (KT) 23 22 26 20 21 21 23 13 15 10 11 23 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -3 1 2 0 -1 0 2 1 -1 -7 6 SHEAR DIR 67 74 82 84 81 83 83 73 61 77 86 109 119 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.7 28.3 27.6 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 155 154 155 155 154 153 153 153 153 150 146 139 131 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.9 -52.3 -51.6 -52.0 -51.7 -51.2 -51.2 -51.1 -51.0 -50.9 -50.8 -50.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 6 8 6 8 7 8 7 8 6 5 4 700-500 MB RH 82 81 79 79 77 71 75 73 72 71 70 71 66 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 9 10 10 9 12 14 13 12 8 7 3 850 MB ENV VOR 74 69 60 60 63 74 81 72 73 70 81 89 65 200 MB DIV 112 99 81 103 104 87 78 60 68 58 43 66 38 LAND (KM) 180 184 192 199 206 202 222 208 229 253 323 428 465 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.3 14.4 14.7 15.0 15.6 16.0 16.5 17.1 17.6 18.0 18.4 18.8 LONG(DEG W) 97.1 97.9 98.7 99.6 100.4 101.7 102.8 104.0 105.2 106.5 107.7 109.2 110.9 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 9 8 6 6 6 7 6 7 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 18 6 3 7 12 17 24 33 20 27 5 5 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 518 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 15. 18. 20. 20. 20. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 7. 6. 5. -1. -2. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 14. 20. 21. 20. 14. 11. 3. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092010 FRANK 08/23/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.5 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 99.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 71.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092010 FRANK 08/23/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED