* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * DANIELLE AL062010 08/23/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 56 62 69 74 82 89 92 95 94 91 89 88 V (KT) LAND 50 56 62 69 74 82 89 92 95 94 91 89 88 V (KT) LGE mod 50 56 62 69 76 86 91 91 90 89 88 89 88 SHEAR (KT) 8 9 4 3 7 8 12 9 15 19 20 20 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 -1 -2 -1 0 3 6 -1 -4 -2 3 2 SHEAR DIR 76 69 80 240 278 254 257 212 227 204 224 197 196 SST (C) 27.8 28.0 28.2 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.4 28.7 28.8 29.0 29.0 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 136 138 141 145 144 143 141 143 147 148 151 151 151 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 137 140 144 143 138 134 134 134 131 133 131 128 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 -52.1 -51.5 -52.1 -51.6 -51.3 -50.6 -50.7 -50.1 -50.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 10 10 11 10 10 10 11 10 700-500 MB RH 68 67 65 62 59 53 56 54 56 52 47 49 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 19 18 20 21 21 25 25 29 29 28 29 31 850 MB ENV VOR 73 70 75 75 75 65 59 52 52 80 65 91 114 200 MB DIV 46 48 60 46 22 23 71 69 29 11 8 44 39 LAND (KM) 1820 1756 1706 1662 1620 1627 1628 1542 1441 1387 1357 1377 1427 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.4 15.9 16.6 17.2 18.7 20.4 22.2 24.0 25.5 26.7 28.0 29.3 LONG(DEG W) 38.7 40.1 41.4 42.9 44.4 47.1 49.5 51.5 53.2 54.7 56.1 57.3 58.4 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 15 16 16 14 13 13 11 9 9 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 14 24 32 34 36 34 36 35 33 25 28 30 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 498 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. 15. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 19. 24. 32. 39. 42. 45. 44. 41. 39. 38. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062010 DANIELLE 08/23/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.7 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 98.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.6 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 28.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 52% is 4.2 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 41% is 5.1 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 28% is 5.8 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 20% is 5.9 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062010 DANIELLE 08/23/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062010 DANIELLE 08/23/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 5( 5) 8( 13) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 1( 1) 0( 1) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)