* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962010 08/23/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 26 30 36 45 56 64 71 71 72 70 68 V (KT) LAND 20 22 26 30 36 45 56 64 71 71 72 70 68 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 23 25 30 35 40 45 48 51 54 54 SHEAR (KT) 8 8 7 5 1 4 7 7 8 2 9 20 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 6 7 9 12 3 4 5 2 11 3 3 8 SHEAR DIR 75 85 77 110 145 300 326 260 190 253 357 341 336 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.4 28.3 28.1 27.7 27.9 27.4 26.7 26.4 26.7 26.8 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 140 141 144 143 140 134 137 130 122 118 121 122 120 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 145 148 145 141 134 135 126 115 111 112 111 108 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.3 -53.7 -53.9 -53.5 -52.8 -52.8 -52.2 -52.1 -51.6 -51.7 -51.5 -51.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 6 7 7 8 8 9 7 8 8 9 8 700-500 MB RH 76 73 71 70 67 63 55 48 45 41 42 41 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 11 10 11 14 14 16 16 20 16 16 14 16 850 MB ENV VOR 102 100 106 104 102 91 72 66 48 9 -25 -61 -85 200 MB DIV 82 115 108 82 84 47 33 29 -1 -11 -31 -26 8 LAND (KM) 153 245 383 524 629 873 1160 1435 1695 1902 2081 2257 2371 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.4 11.8 12.4 12.9 14.2 15.3 16.5 17.7 19.0 20.3 21.8 23.2 LONG(DEG W) 17.5 18.9 20.3 21.7 23.0 25.6 28.3 30.8 33.1 35.1 37.0 38.8 40.0 STM SPEED (KT) 12 14 15 14 14 14 14 13 12 11 11 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 22 18 12 17 8 7 9 5 4 6 11 8 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 611 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 20. 25. 30. 32. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 14. 15. 15. 14. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. 4. 3. 2. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 10. 16. 25. 36. 44. 51. 51. 52. 50. 48. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962010 INVEST 08/23/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 94.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.0 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962010 INVEST 08/23/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED