* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * FRANK EP092010 08/23/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 54 56 59 64 69 67 63 61 60 56 54 V (KT) LAND 50 52 54 56 59 64 69 67 63 61 60 56 54 V (KT) LGE mod 50 51 52 53 54 56 59 61 63 64 65 64 61 SHEAR (KT) 20 20 20 22 21 19 18 17 16 15 15 18 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 -1 0 -2 -2 0 0 0 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 66 75 77 86 83 91 93 87 94 65 87 95 121 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.8 28.5 28.1 27.4 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 154 153 152 152 151 152 151 148 144 136 129 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.4 -51.8 -52.1 -52.3 -51.3 -51.8 -50.7 -51.3 -50.6 -51.5 -50.9 -51.3 TH_E DEV (C) 4 6 8 6 5 10 6 9 6 7 4 5 3 700-500 MB RH 80 79 80 77 72 73 71 73 73 74 73 73 70 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 9 9 10 11 13 9 7 6 6 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 57 51 47 54 61 78 81 71 59 63 59 54 47 200 MB DIV 80 64 80 93 83 68 67 50 -8 17 3 33 2 LAND (KM) 182 180 194 191 189 185 172 191 218 291 357 411 373 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.5 14.6 15.0 15.3 16.0 16.6 17.2 17.7 18.1 18.7 19.2 19.7 LONG(DEG W) 97.8 98.5 99.2 100.0 100.7 102.1 103.5 104.8 106.1 107.4 108.6 109.9 111.1 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 7 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 7 4 5 11 25 27 34 20 30 8 7 4 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 528 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 17. 19. 19. 19. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -7. -8. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 2. -1. -3. -1. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 14. 19. 17. 13. 11. 10. 6. 4. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092010 FRANK 08/23/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.7 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 80.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.0 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 83.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092010 FRANK 08/23/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED