* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * DANIELLE AL062010 08/23/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 72 80 85 91 98 100 100 101 100 98 99 98 V (KT) LAND 65 72 80 85 91 98 100 100 101 100 98 99 98 V (KT) LGE mod 65 73 82 89 95 101 98 95 92 91 91 94 95 SHEAR (KT) 7 3 3 7 5 17 10 13 12 11 6 10 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -2 2 3 0 2 6 -5 -1 -2 1 2 SHEAR DIR 68 51 276 291 311 261 251 225 209 208 204 217 172 SST (C) 28.1 28.3 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.2 28.4 28.7 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 140 143 146 146 144 141 144 148 150 150 150 151 148 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 142 145 145 142 136 136 136 134 130 129 130 126 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.5 -52.4 -52.2 -51.7 -52.2 -51.8 -51.6 -51.3 -51.2 -50.3 -50.1 -49.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 10 10 11 11 11 10 11 12 11 700-500 MB RH 62 63 60 56 55 56 56 57 58 56 55 52 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 19 20 21 21 24 24 24 27 29 29 33 36 850 MB ENV VOR 72 78 78 76 70 60 46 42 41 25 23 22 58 200 MB DIV 31 49 51 43 69 59 77 62 0 7 27 33 64 LAND (KM) 1696 1647 1601 1572 1564 1616 1556 1416 1349 1343 1380 1433 1507 LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.8 16.4 17.1 17.8 19.6 21.5 23.4 25.0 26.3 27.2 28.5 30.0 LONG(DEG W) 40.7 42.2 43.6 45.1 46.5 49.0 51.2 53.2 54.8 55.9 56.3 57.1 58.1 STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 15 16 15 14 14 12 10 6 6 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 29 35 36 42 42 39 34 36 27 29 28 29 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 506 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 4. 6. 5. 8. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 15. 20. 26. 33. 35. 35. 36. 35. 33. 34. 33. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062010 DANIELLE 08/23/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.1 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.6 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 36.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 54% is 4.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 47% is 5.8 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 38% is 7.8 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 34% is 10.1 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062010 DANIELLE 08/23/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062010 DANIELLE 08/23/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 7( 9) 12( 20) 21( 37) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 2 17( 19) 13( 29) 14( 39) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)