* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962010 08/23/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 39 43 50 57 62 62 66 64 63 63 V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 39 43 50 57 62 62 66 64 63 63 V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 30 33 36 40 43 43 43 44 47 51 56 SHEAR (KT) 5 5 7 3 7 7 14 14 3 7 12 13 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 10 10 9 4 7 5 1 11 3 -2 1 11 SHEAR DIR 78 126 124 182 226 219 241 247 195 325 330 311 302 SST (C) 28.2 28.4 28.4 28.1 27.6 27.4 27.1 26.3 26.5 26.9 27.3 27.7 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 140 144 145 141 134 131 128 119 120 124 129 133 133 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 148 149 144 136 131 126 115 115 117 121 123 122 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -54.1 -54.4 -53.7 -52.9 -53.0 -52.2 -52.4 -51.3 -51.7 -51.4 -51.5 -50.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 7 7 8 8 8 7 8 8 10 10 11 700-500 MB RH 74 73 70 68 68 62 57 55 47 49 45 49 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 11 13 14 15 15 18 20 18 21 19 18 21 850 MB ENV VOR 91 102 106 100 91 75 76 51 12 -18 -42 -48 -47 200 MB DIV 103 103 98 87 57 35 37 10 62 -13 -10 6 4 LAND (KM) 113 201 345 456 603 940 1311 1665 1963 2244 2166 2085 2042 LAT (DEG N) 11.3 12.1 12.8 13.6 14.4 15.9 17.3 18.5 19.7 20.6 21.2 21.8 22.5 LONG(DEG W) 17.3 18.7 20.0 21.6 23.1 26.2 29.5 32.7 35.8 38.6 41.4 43.9 46.2 STM SPEED (KT) 12 15 16 17 17 17 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 22 23 14 10 5 4 2 2 9 11 11 17 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 593 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 26. 29. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 7. 5. 5. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 14. 18. 25. 32. 37. 37. 41. 39. 38. 38. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962010 INVEST 08/23/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 89.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.6 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962010 INVEST 08/23/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED