* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * FRANK EP092010 08/23/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 45 46 48 51 56 57 61 60 63 57 54 V (KT) LAND 45 45 45 46 48 51 56 57 61 60 63 57 54 V (KT) LGE mod 45 44 43 43 44 45 47 49 52 53 54 53 50 SHEAR (KT) 19 23 25 22 22 18 16 17 5 12 13 12 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 1 0 -1 -1 0 1 0 0 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 80 77 82 82 80 88 87 89 118 93 91 103 116 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.7 28.4 27.9 26.9 26.2 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 155 154 152 152 152 152 153 150 147 142 132 123 117 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -51.8 -52.0 -52.3 -52.0 -51.7 -51.6 -51.2 -51.1 -50.9 -50.7 -50.5 -50.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 6 8 7 8 6 6 5 4 2 2 700-500 MB RH 77 75 72 69 70 71 68 70 68 70 67 67 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 10 10 11 10 12 10 11 11 14 12 12 850 MB ENV VOR 56 55 60 62 65 86 78 73 67 80 84 68 64 200 MB DIV 61 72 72 58 71 74 49 57 22 46 55 9 -1 LAND (KM) 160 173 186 186 187 168 206 229 298 392 399 382 393 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.0 15.2 15.5 15.8 16.6 17.3 17.9 18.4 18.9 19.4 20.0 20.5 LONG(DEG W) 98.9 99.7 100.4 101.1 101.8 103.4 105.1 106.5 107.7 109.1 110.9 112.0 112.8 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 7 8 9 8 7 7 8 7 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 8 9 10 15 20 36 17 27 8 6 3 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 506 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 8. 12. 16. 20. 21. 21. 20. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -13. -13. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 4. 2. 4. 3. 8. 5. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 11. 12. 16. 15. 18. 13. 9. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092010 FRANK 08/23/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.3 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 61.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 12.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092010 FRANK 08/23/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED