* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * DANIELLE AL062010 08/24/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 84 91 96 100 106 107 106 104 103 100 100 97 V (KT) LAND 75 84 91 96 100 106 107 106 104 103 100 100 97 V (KT) LGE mod 75 86 96 102 105 105 101 96 94 93 94 96 96 SHEAR (KT) 4 2 6 8 9 16 16 16 16 9 7 5 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 1 0 0 1 2 0 -3 -1 0 -2 4 SHEAR DIR 57 285 282 294 263 256 197 238 204 170 180 251 206 SST (C) 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.6 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.1 28.9 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 145 146 145 144 143 143 147 150 151 152 152 149 143 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 144 143 141 139 137 138 137 134 132 131 128 122 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.6 -52.5 -51.7 -51.7 -52.1 -51.5 -51.5 -51.2 -50.5 -50.3 -49.7 -49.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 10 11 11 11 10 11 11 11 10 9 700-500 MB RH 63 62 57 59 54 61 54 60 57 54 53 57 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 20 20 21 22 26 27 28 27 29 30 35 35 850 MB ENV VOR 71 71 67 56 49 41 33 26 31 17 27 39 63 200 MB DIV 36 40 28 53 45 71 65 -2 35 14 16 65 65 LAND (KM) 1611 1576 1547 1556 1578 1573 1455 1345 1298 1313 1362 1452 1496 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 16.2 16.8 17.6 18.4 20.3 22.3 24.1 25.4 26.7 27.9 29.4 31.1 LONG(DEG W) 42.3 43.7 45.0 46.3 47.5 50.1 52.4 54.3 55.7 56.7 57.4 58.1 58.9 STM SPEED (KT) 16 14 14 14 15 15 14 11 8 7 8 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 34 36 41 43 38 36 40 33 32 27 29 26 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 497 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 0. -2. -4. -6. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 3. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 10. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 9. 16. 21. 25. 31. 32. 31. 29. 28. 25. 25. 22. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062010 DANIELLE 08/24/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 25.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.7 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 97.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.3 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 38.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 52% is 4.1 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 46% is 5.7 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 37% is 7.6 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 37% is 10.8 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062010 DANIELLE 08/24/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062010 DANIELLE 08/24/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 12( 16) 22( 35) 27( 52) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 4 5( 9) 4( 12) 9( 20) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)