* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962010 08/24/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 37 41 50 57 65 71 75 76 76 77 V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 37 41 50 57 65 71 75 76 76 77 V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 30 32 35 38 42 45 49 55 65 75 80 SHEAR (KT) 2 3 3 10 8 11 13 11 3 6 2 16 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 15 14 10 4 1 4 1 7 2 -2 0 1 6 SHEAR DIR 126 154 257 231 223 261 278 328 160 37 349 306 319 SST (C) 28.4 28.3 27.9 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.1 26.9 27.0 27.3 27.5 27.7 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 145 143 138 134 134 135 127 124 124 127 130 133 132 ADJ. POT. INT. 149 148 141 136 136 135 124 118 116 118 121 122 120 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.2 -53.6 -52.9 -52.8 -52.7 -52.3 -52.3 -51.7 -51.8 -51.5 -51.7 -50.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 700-500 MB RH 73 68 69 67 64 59 53 47 48 46 44 44 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 13 14 15 15 18 17 22 22 20 19 19 23 850 MB ENV VOR 103 104 99 91 88 84 74 45 22 -2 -18 -24 -20 200 MB DIV 98 88 53 53 27 48 45 25 6 -11 -2 20 12 LAND (KM) 270 407 539 710 891 1272 1629 1952 2151 2065 2043 2044 2061 LAT (DEG N) 12.4 13.1 13.8 14.5 15.1 16.1 16.8 17.3 18.0 18.5 19.5 20.7 21.8 LONG(DEG W) 19.3 20.9 22.4 24.1 25.8 29.3 32.6 35.6 37.6 39.4 41.0 42.7 44.4 STM SPEED (KT) 16 17 17 18 18 17 15 12 10 9 10 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 17 13 6 5 5 6 6 7 11 14 13 16 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 497 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 26. 29. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 16. 25. 32. 40. 46. 50. 51. 51. 52. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962010 INVEST 08/24/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.0 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962010 INVEST 08/24/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED