* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * FRANK EP092010 08/24/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 43 43 44 46 51 55 57 63 64 65 62 55 V (KT) LAND 45 43 43 44 46 51 55 57 63 64 65 62 55 V (KT) LGE mod 45 43 42 42 42 43 45 47 49 50 50 49 46 SHEAR (KT) 23 23 21 21 17 16 14 15 10 9 8 10 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 1 0 1 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 69 78 76 90 90 97 86 99 84 72 89 118 112 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.8 28.9 28.6 28.3 27.5 26.6 25.9 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 154 152 152 152 151 152 153 149 146 138 128 121 112 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.0 -52.2 -52.0 -51.5 -51.9 -50.5 -51.1 -50.2 -50.9 -50.2 -50.9 -50.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 5 8 10 7 10 6 7 4 4 2 2 700-500 MB RH 76 73 70 70 72 68 68 69 72 73 70 67 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 11 12 12 13 14 14 16 17 18 18 16 850 MB ENV VOR 48 53 55 60 66 68 68 62 78 79 82 62 67 200 MB DIV 63 61 54 60 62 59 73 10 26 16 33 5 1 LAND (KM) 165 171 176 179 198 181 206 256 337 412 352 365 429 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.4 15.6 15.9 16.2 16.9 17.6 18.1 18.6 19.2 19.9 20.4 20.8 LONG(DEG W) 99.7 100.4 101.1 101.9 102.6 104.2 105.7 107.0 108.3 109.7 111.1 112.3 113.5 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 12 12 15 23 36 26 30 12 8 4 2 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 546 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 8. 12. 16. 19. 21. 20. 19. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 6. 7. 10. 11. 13. 12. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -1. 1. 6. 10. 12. 18. 20. 20. 17. 10. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092010 FRANK 08/24/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.2 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.1 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 39.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092010 FRANK 08/24/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY