* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * DANIELLE AL062010 08/24/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 91 96 99 100 103 100 102 101 99 99 100 95 V (KT) LAND 85 91 96 99 100 103 100 102 101 99 99 100 95 V (KT) LGE mod 85 93 99 102 104 102 97 94 92 92 95 97 95 SHEAR (KT) 3 8 11 8 16 12 19 17 12 8 8 11 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 1 0 0 4 0 -2 0 -1 -2 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 332 304 297 270 248 219 242 184 178 141 226 159 205 SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.4 28.7 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.1 28.9 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 147 145 145 144 142 144 148 152 153 152 152 149 141 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 143 143 141 138 137 138 137 135 133 131 128 119 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.8 -51.9 -52.1 -52.3 -51.5 -52.0 -51.6 -51.0 -50.2 -49.8 -48.9 -48.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 11 10 11 10 9 8 700-500 MB RH 64 59 60 59 58 55 55 59 57 56 55 59 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 20 22 23 23 23 22 26 28 29 31 36 36 850 MB ENV VOR 71 67 56 53 46 35 16 37 35 41 43 66 92 200 MB DIV 33 31 48 50 69 96 -5 39 26 38 12 110 62 LAND (KM) 1513 1496 1495 1521 1553 1519 1397 1303 1262 1273 1369 1461 1438 LAT (DEG N) 15.7 16.4 17.1 18.0 18.8 20.7 22.9 24.5 25.7 26.9 28.4 29.9 31.4 LONG(DEG W) 44.0 45.3 46.5 47.8 49.0 51.2 53.2 55.0 56.4 57.5 58.0 58.8 59.7 STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 14 15 14 14 13 10 8 8 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 35 39 44 41 42 36 37 33 35 27 30 22 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 688 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 5. 4. 2. -2. -6. -10. -12. -15. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. -2. 0. 2. 5. 7. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 10. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 14. 15. 18. 15. 17. 16. 14. 14. 15. 10. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062010 DANIELLE 08/24/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 57.3 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 95.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 40.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 35% is 2.8 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 18% is 5.8 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062010 DANIELLE 08/24/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062010 DANIELLE 08/24/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 19( 27) 22( 43) 25( 57) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 24 13( 34) 18( 46) 15( 54) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)