* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962010 08/24/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 39 49 57 62 69 73 73 72 73 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 39 49 57 62 69 73 73 72 73 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 30 33 38 43 47 52 57 64 70 72 SHEAR (KT) 5 2 2 2 4 10 12 1 11 9 16 20 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 10 6 5 5 0 4 10 0 0 3 0 5 SHEAR DIR 92 105 68 257 254 303 316 302 327 343 329 320 334 SST (C) 28.3 28.1 27.8 27.7 27.8 27.5 26.9 26.7 27.1 27.4 27.7 27.8 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 143 140 136 135 136 132 125 122 126 129 133 134 132 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 143 137 136 138 131 121 115 117 120 122 122 120 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.6 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -52.2 -52.4 -52.0 -52.4 -51.4 -51.8 -51.2 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 11 11 700-500 MB RH 69 67 66 64 64 60 56 51 49 46 47 43 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 13 13 12 13 15 17 16 19 18 17 17 19 850 MB ENV VOR 100 99 84 80 73 67 47 11 -19 -32 -39 -43 -36 200 MB DIV 94 58 41 36 38 25 7 11 0 24 -24 2 -27 LAND (KM) 530 638 763 915 1074 1431 1760 2050 2169 2095 2037 2001 1997 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 13.0 13.7 14.3 14.9 16.1 17.1 18.3 19.0 19.8 20.5 21.2 22.0 LONG(DEG W) 21.7 23.1 24.5 26.0 27.5 30.8 33.8 36.4 38.5 40.6 42.5 44.4 46.2 STM SPEED (KT) 15 16 16 16 17 16 14 12 11 10 10 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 17 8 5 7 8 6 6 9 12 13 15 21 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 487 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 22. 26. 28. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 10. 12. 12. 13. 12. 11. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 2. 4. 3. 2. 2. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 14. 24. 32. 37. 44. 48. 48. 47. 48. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962010 INVEST 08/24/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.1 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962010 INVEST 08/24/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED