* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * FRANK EP092010 08/24/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 46 47 49 53 55 62 62 66 64 56 53 V (KT) LAND 45 45 46 47 49 53 55 62 62 66 64 56 53 V (KT) LGE mod 45 45 46 47 47 49 51 53 55 55 53 50 46 SHEAR (KT) 20 21 21 21 20 18 19 6 12 14 16 14 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 0 0 0 0 -1 1 -1 0 -3 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 70 71 80 86 87 98 83 100 75 83 91 123 122 SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.9 28.6 28.3 27.6 26.9 26.3 25.8 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 153 151 151 151 151 153 150 146 139 131 124 118 115 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.4 -52.1 -51.5 -52.0 -51.6 -51.2 -50.9 -50.7 -50.7 -50.8 -50.9 -50.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 8 10 8 8 6 7 4 4 3 3 2 700-500 MB RH 73 70 71 73 70 67 66 68 70 69 68 64 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 11 11 11 12 11 14 13 18 17 14 16 850 MB ENV VOR 43 45 50 58 67 64 68 70 86 80 74 67 67 200 MB DIV 56 44 55 62 63 44 40 46 48 56 31 10 25 LAND (KM) 190 196 202 216 192 235 261 341 445 408 392 401 423 LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.5 15.7 16.1 16.4 17.1 17.9 18.4 18.8 19.3 19.9 20.3 20.4 LONG(DEG W) 100.5 101.2 101.9 102.7 103.5 105.3 106.9 108.2 109.6 110.8 112.0 112.7 113.1 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 8 8 9 9 8 6 7 6 5 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 11 15 19 36 37 23 15 6 5 3 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 12. 16. 18. 19. 18. 17. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. -13. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 1. 6. 5. 11. 11. 6. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 10. 17. 17. 21. 19. 11. 8. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092010 FRANK 08/24/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.4 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 57.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092010 FRANK 08/24/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY