* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * DANIELLE AL062010 08/24/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 76 78 79 81 82 83 85 87 92 94 92 88 V (KT) LAND 75 76 78 79 81 82 83 85 87 92 94 92 88 V (KT) LGE mod 75 76 77 79 80 81 80 80 82 86 92 96 94 SHEAR (KT) 13 12 8 17 15 19 15 15 8 4 3 5 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 2 0 3 3 -1 -5 -3 1 0 7 3 SHEAR DIR 308 286 298 253 259 252 228 185 152 187 250 227 204 SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.6 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.1 28.8 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 147 145 145 144 144 146 150 151 152 152 153 149 137 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 142 142 140 138 138 138 135 134 132 132 129 118 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -51.8 -51.9 -51.9 -51.9 -51.8 -51.9 -51.5 -51.0 -49.8 -49.7 -48.7 -48.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 10 12 9 11 10 11 10 10 7 700-500 MB RH 60 57 60 58 61 59 66 59 55 52 54 58 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 22 23 22 23 26 26 26 27 27 32 34 34 34 850 MB ENV VOR 61 49 49 36 31 13 21 37 30 35 49 72 88 200 MB DIV 31 42 32 71 99 36 30 11 9 12 38 83 65 LAND (KM) 1435 1441 1455 1506 1485 1427 1314 1274 1283 1304 1345 1471 1337 LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.8 17.5 18.5 19.4 21.2 23.0 24.6 26.0 27.2 28.4 30.2 32.4 LONG(DEG W) 45.8 47.0 48.2 49.3 50.4 52.4 54.1 55.4 56.4 57.4 58.4 59.2 59.6 STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 14 14 13 13 11 9 8 7 8 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 43 51 51 49 46 44 38 43 38 31 32 22 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 691 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 5. 6. 5. 2. 0. -3. -4. -6. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. 1. 4. 6. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 6. 7. 7. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 10. 12. 17. 19. 17. 13. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062010 DANIELLE 08/24/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.4 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 71.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.2 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 48.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062010 DANIELLE 08/24/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062010 DANIELLE 08/24/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 6( 11) 8( 18) 8( 24) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)