* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * FRANK EP092010 08/24/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 60 62 64 67 70 71 71 68 62 56 49 V (KT) LAND 55 58 60 62 64 67 70 71 71 68 62 56 49 V (KT) LGE mod 55 59 61 63 64 66 67 66 64 60 55 51 46 SHEAR (KT) 18 20 20 19 18 17 10 10 11 12 12 13 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 1 0 -2 1 3 1 0 -1 -2 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 61 72 84 81 83 88 78 79 59 115 125 124 144 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.4 27.9 27.1 26.5 26.0 25.4 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 151 151 152 152 148 142 134 127 121 114 110 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.2 -51.6 -52.0 -52.2 -50.8 -51.2 -50.3 -51.2 -50.8 -51.0 -50.9 -51.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 8 10 8 6 9 6 6 3 4 3 3 2 700-500 MB RH 73 73 75 71 71 71 70 71 73 72 70 66 65 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 11 10 11 11 13 14 14 15 16 15 14 13 850 MB ENV VOR 33 41 46 55 43 53 58 70 71 71 63 64 47 200 MB DIV 44 50 56 58 49 44 41 40 27 52 -6 -3 -5 LAND (KM) 206 216 241 220 230 260 327 414 425 411 433 432 402 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.6 15.8 16.2 16.5 17.2 17.8 18.5 19.1 19.6 20.0 20.5 21.1 LONG(DEG W) 101.1 101.9 102.7 103.6 104.4 106.0 107.6 109.1 110.5 111.8 112.8 113.3 113.4 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 9 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 14 15 30 36 31 32 6 5 4 2 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 554 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 11. 12. 11. 9. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 9. 13. 15. 16. 16. 13. 7. 1. -6. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092010 FRANK 08/24/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.0 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.1 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 71.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 25.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092010 FRANK 08/24/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED