* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * DANIELLE AL062010 08/24/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 61 60 60 61 61 64 67 73 80 87 87 87 V (KT) LAND 65 61 60 60 61 61 64 67 73 80 87 87 87 V (KT) LGE mod 65 60 57 56 56 56 57 59 64 70 78 85 83 SHEAR (KT) 13 11 16 16 16 22 20 16 4 6 4 17 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 2 2 5 -1 -5 -8 0 0 0 0 5 SHEAR DIR 288 265 255 256 251 248 182 198 200 270 245 240 215 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.7 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.5 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 146 145 143 145 145 147 152 153 153 152 151 144 132 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 140 138 139 138 136 138 137 134 130 128 124 112 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.1 -52.0 -51.9 -51.7 -51.9 -51.2 -51.3 -50.2 -50.4 -49.1 -49.5 -47.9 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 10 10 11 11 10 10 11 11 10 8 6 700-500 MB RH 59 62 63 66 66 61 64 58 58 56 61 63 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 23 23 23 24 24 25 27 27 30 33 37 38 43 850 MB ENV VOR 54 50 35 29 23 -1 26 15 14 13 44 59 74 200 MB DIV 14 30 72 95 69 0 55 21 45 21 93 60 113 LAND (KM) 1448 1467 1485 1460 1451 1353 1290 1272 1273 1321 1389 1473 1220 LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.8 18.5 19.4 20.3 22.2 23.9 25.5 26.9 28.2 29.3 31.1 33.4 LONG(DEG W) 47.5 48.6 49.7 50.7 51.7 53.4 54.8 56.1 57.5 58.5 59.1 59.6 60.0 STM SPEED (KT) 15 13 13 13 13 11 10 10 9 7 7 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 52 51 51 45 43 42 45 40 31 32 27 14 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 18 CX,CY: -15/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 750 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 6. 4. 3. 2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. 0. 2. 4. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -7. -5. -2. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 9. 9. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -1. 2. 8. 15. 22. 22. 22. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062010 DANIELLE 08/24/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.6 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 45.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.1 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 48.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062010 DANIELLE 08/24/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062010 DANIELLE 08/24/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)